Lesson 4.4: Developing a Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA)

• The most common method for obtaining the information required in a RVA is through participatory workshops.
• For the sections relating to data on historical and projected climate change, the services of a climate/meteorological expert could be considered for localised information.
• A population survey could also be conducted on a representative sample of the population.

• Include a description of the local government as well as information on its location, geography, official boundary, and land area (this should ideally be accompanied by a map).
• Include information on the state of the built environment (roads, infrastructure, housing etc.).
• Include information on the current and projected population for the next five, 10 and 20 years broken down by sex, age, and other locally relevant identity markers.
• Give an overview of the area’s key economic sectors and socio-economic status.
• Provide any additional relevant information on gender roles, culture, etc.

• Describe current national and local adaptation commitments such as NDC, climate change plans, local development plans.
• List relevant stakeholders for adaptation planning and overview of city mandate.
• Identify any gender legislation, policy and strategies.

• Give an overview of climate trends experienced across the country and the city for at least the past 30 years (temperature and rainfall).
• Give an overview of how the current climate trends experienced across the country are projected to change (temperature and rainfall).
• Include detail on all data sources.
• For an open source tool for local climate change trends, go to the Climate Information Portal.

• The RVA should highlight the most significant climate hazards currently faced in the local government’s jurisdiction (sea-level rise, flood, drought, etc.).
• It should also include an overview of the current risk level (both probability and consequence) associated with each hazard.
• Once the current hazards and their impacts on various sectors and vulnerable groups has been established, the RVA should provide detail on how climate change will likely affect the intensity, frequency, and timescale of each hazard (as a result of climate change). This can be informed by climate change projections to determine future climate hazards at a time-scale of 20 to 40 years. The projections should be localised. If not available, the projections may be at the national level.
• The expected change in frequency and intensity is typically measured on a scale of ‘Increase’, ‘Decrease’, ‘No Change’ and ‘Not Known’.
• The timescale for the expected changes is typically measured as ‘Immediately’,’ Short-term’ (by 2025), ‘Medium-term’ (2026-2050), ‘Long-term’ (after 2050) and ‘Not Known’.

Refresh your understanding of climate hazards with this video (link to climate hazards video (ENG, FR, PT))

• The RVA should indicate all relevant population groups, sectors, assets or services most impacted by current climate hazards affecting the local government.
• It should also indicate the magnitude of impact of each hazard on each sector. This will highlight the sectors currently most at risk to climate impacts currently being experienced.
• Remember to include women and marginalised groups who experience acute and differential impacts of hazards. These impacts exacerbate existing inequities in socially constructed roles, responsibilities, perceptions, and skewed power relations that tend to disadvantage these groups.
• The RVA should indicate the sectors, assets, or services as well as the vulnerable populations that are expected to be impacted by future climate hazards.
• It should indicate the anticipated magnitude of expected future impacts.
• It should also provide a description of climate hazards experienced so far and how the hazard is expected to impact the city in the future.

Thinking on long-term timescales for RVAs:
It is important to consider if hazards have been getting worse over recent decades. Think about how certain sectors, services, and population groups were not previously impacted when the hazards were less intense. Now consider, if hazards are becoming more intense, their impacts may soon impact additional sectors, services, and population groups that are not currently affected.